Narges Ghasemiamin; Nasim Arman; Hossein Zeinivand
Abstract
Land use involves exploitation type of land for resolving human different needs. Land use changes is the result of interaction between human and affective factors on environment which is considered in spatial and temporal scale. Awareness of land use rates and its change in time is one of the most important ...
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Land use involves exploitation type of land for resolving human different needs. Land use changes is the result of interaction between human and affective factors on environment which is considered in spatial and temporal scale. Awareness of land use rates and its change in time is one of the most important factors in planning and management. By knowing rate of land use changes time scale, forecasting feature changes will be possible and do appropriate act. In this research, 2014 land use map was prepared by RS with Kappa coefficient of 0.88 and overall accuracy of 0.86 which has high accuracy. For investigating each effective factor on land use in CLUE-S model logistic regression was used and for assessment of logistic regression, ROC curve was used. After determination of demand ratio according to past changes, land use map of 2025 was prepared. Assessment of CLUE-S model showed its high accuracy (Kappa coefficient is 0.88). Also, the results demonstrated that the most land use change are related to forests and ranges to farmlands, as range and forest lands decreases 28.12 and 82.20 present respectively and farmlands increases 10.33 percent until 2025.
Narges Ghasemiamin; Nasim Arman; Hossein Zeinivand
Abstract
Land use and its fluctuations is one of the most important factors that affects on the natural cycle in the ecosystem. Land use changes cause change in watershed hydrological cycles, water balance between precipitation, evaporation, infiltration and runoff response. Understanding the relationship between ...
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Land use and its fluctuations is one of the most important factors that affects on the natural cycle in the ecosystem. Land use changes cause change in watershed hydrological cycles, water balance between precipitation, evaporation, infiltration and runoff response. Understanding the relationship between land use changes and its factors and secondary effects on the hydrological regime provides the necessary information for planning of land use and sustainable management of natural resources. At first, land use maps related to years of 2000 and 2014 were prepared, then CLUE-s model was applied to simulate land use map of 2025. For simulating runoff, WetSpa model was employed to simulate daily runoff with land use maps related to years of 2000, 2014 and 2025. According to the results, the Nash-Sutcliffe evaluation criterion was calculated 68.26 % and 66.75 % for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In addition, model Aggregate Measure (AM) was calculated 64 % and 54.15 % for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Land use maps comparison showed, the main land use changes in Nojian Watershed was the conversion of forest and rangeland areas to agricultural lands .As a result of these changes the annual runoff volume, peak discharge, mean daily discharge increased to 16.20, 11.35 and 9.15 percent, respectively. Results of statistical analysis using paired t-test showed that land use change has effect on discharges in the study area at the level of 1%.
